Coalition: ADC’s Prospect and Weakness – Elempe Dele
Old political war horses, serving and former legislators, former party national chairmen, retired military officers, geroncratic aristocrats, professional politicians, former governors, former political appointees, former elected office holders, former candidates and members of different political parties gathered at the Shehu Centre in Abuja yesterday to unveil the African Democratic Congress, ADC, as the chosen party for the coalition to democratically topple the ruling All Progressive Party, APC, in the 2027 presidential election.
Two former presidential candidates were conspicuously present: Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, who both contested the 2023 presidential election. Others who formed part of the core union ar the unveiling were Malam El Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola; all former governors, former Senate President David Mark, Dino Melaye, Solomon Dalong, Dele Momodu, Gabriel Suswam, Ireti Kingibe, Babaginda Aliyu, Sam Egwu, Liyel Imoke, Tom Ikimi, Ben Obi, Uche Secondus ecetera ecetera.
The Coalition, now officially a political party, looks very strong basically since it is peopled by experience politicians and are spread across the cardinal directions of the country: West, East, South and North. The main purpose of the convocated platform is to use it to remove President Tinubu of the APC from power in 2027. Senator David Mark, who is the interim chairman of the party, said the Coalition will rescue Nigeria from collapse and help rebuild the nation’s democracy. Members of the Coalition are asking Nigerians to join to help unseat Tinubu.
Well, since the removal of the fuel subsidy and floating of the Naira, Nigerians have been grasping with economic challenges. This has resulted in widespread poverty, anger, unemployment and inflation. The common Nigerian cannot relate with the government’s implementations of its fiscal reforms, debt payments, diversification of the economy, social safety net programs and trade liberalization. All these do not immediately translate to gains for the common man who feels the consequence of the price of fuel that jumped from 196 Naira to over 1,600 in 2023 and the exchange rate jumping from about 700 Naira to almost 2,000 Naira.
The world of the ordinary man came crashing down with these events cumulative from these necessary but painful reforms. Apart from these economic challenges, much of the security challenges have not be addressed properly. Bandits and terrorists are being emboldened. Fulani killer headsmen have been running away with killing sprees in Benue and Plateau States. These are part of the issues that will give the Coalition some forms of appeal just as the APC had in 2014/2015 when the party used the challenges Nigeria was faced with at that time to oust President Jonathan.
As expected, the rhetorics have started: El Rufai said urban and rural banditry will be extinguished. Arigbesola said the party will have a clear ideological compass rooted in democratic values, social justice, accountability and national development. He added that the party will listen to the people, not only during elections, but every single day. David Mark said the Coalition will rescue Nigeria from collapse and help rebuild democratic tenets.
All these sweet talks and rhetorics will appeal to Nigerians who are gravely disenchanted by their conditions of existence. They have blamed their woes on the APC that have been in government for the past ten years. So words like these will easily penetrate their emotional membranes.
In 2023, we saw how these same charming words like a New Nigeria is Possible garnered the fervent support of over six million Nigerians for Peter Obi under the Obidient Movement. This could possibly repeat itself under this Coalition as the APC government is hugely unpopular for obvious reasons. Yes, nowhere in the world it is easy for the people to accept reforms that will take away their comfort zones in replacement for hardship. In Kenya, violent riots have ensured where the people have destroyed properties and several humanities have been killed. Even in South America, reforms have been greeted with furious anger and widespread protests. So the Coalition, which has been gaining traction from the citizens, will ordinarily cash in on these sentiments to unseat Tinubu. These are ready-made strategic campaign materials to dissuade voters from voting for the ruling party in 2027.
However, the Coalition is faced with task like a group pushing a dead body uphill. The Sisyphean task is not an easy one to surmount. First, in Nigeria, to defeat an incumbent government is a huge challenge. The government holds the aces in almost all spheres except voters cards. Secondly, it will also be difficult for members of the Coalition to agree on who becomes their presidential candidate, just as they couldn’t agree to run under one platform in 2023. Rumours have it that Obi is being courted to run as Atiku’s deputy while Obi has declared he will be running but might settle for a single term so that he can use half of his four year reign to stabilize Nigeria. This potential disagreement of who will wear the crown will be a major problem that can disintegrate the Coalition and its mission. It is likely this is one of the reasons some of the stakeholders like Obi and Atiku are yet to openly resign from their parent parties. They will need to have somewhere to fall back to if the center cannot hold and the falcons cannot hear each other, and if the Coalition turns into a Tower of Babel. It will result to ‘to your tent Israel.’
For me, the gravest weakness of the Coalition is that it is peopled by our regular politicians who have been in office for over the years, some for decades. Some people are not over-excited with their rhetorics the way they were with Obi in 2023. What saving grace sermon can El Rufai be telling the people after spending all his adult years in different ruling parties and holding different key offices? He was lately the Governor of Kaduna State with issues of massive corruption running into billions of Naira hanging on his neck like a pendant. How can he be talking about extinguishing banditry when Southern Kaduna was a killing field under his watch? Arigbesola was the Minister for Interior under the lukewarm administration of Buhari. His impact was never felt. We cannot easily forget he was before then a two term governor of Osun State. Amaechi was one of the strongest voices that toppled Jonathan to mount Buhari. He even advocated for a parallel government if they did not win. He was a former governor of the state that saw meaningful infrastructural development after her left office. What was his impact as the Minister of Transportation under Buhari? Will Obi be able to court the Obidient Movement to join the Coalition, people he phrased as ‘Structures of Criminalities’? Will he get as much votes if he succeeds in abandoning the movement? Atiku is one person that makes politics teak around him. I do not see how any of these his new soul-mates will be able to get the presidential ticket apart from him. Apart from Buhari, he is the next most popular single individual in Nigeria.
In all, some Nigerians feel these strange-bed fellows are part of those who destroyed Nigeria, and cannot hope for a redemption from them. You do not go to appeal the devil for forgiveness.
